I do monthly scrubs on my NAS, I have 8 14-20TB drives that are quite full.
According to that 10^14 metric I should see read errors just about every month. Except I have just about zero.
Current disks are ~4 years, runs 24/7, and excluding a bad cable incident I've had a single case of a read error (recoverable, thanks ZFS).
I suspect those URE numbers are made by the manufacturers figuring out they can be sure the disk will do 10^14, but they don't actually try to find the real number because 10^14 is good enough.
> I suspect those URE numbers are made by the manufacturers figuring out they can be sure the disk will do 10^14, but they don't actually try to find the real number because 10^14 is good enough.
I am inclined to agree. However, I have one thought to the contrary. When a mechanical drive is failing, you tend to have debris inside the drive hitting the platters, causing damage that creates more debris, accelerating the drive’s eventual death, with read errors becoming increasingly common while it happens. When those are included in averages, the 10^14 might very well be accurate. I have not done any rigorous analysis to justify this thought and I do not have the data to be able to do that analysis. It is just something that occurs to me that might justify the 10^14 figure.
Fair, newest ones are, but two of my older current drives are IronWolfs 16TB which are 10^15 in the specs[1], and they've been running for 5.4 years. Again without any read errors, monthly scrubs, and of course daily use.
And before that I have been using 8x WD Reds 3TB for 6-7 years, which have 10^14 in the specs[2], and had the same experience with those.
Yes smaller size, but I ran scrubbing on those biweekly, and over so many years?
According to that 10^14 metric I should see read errors just about every month. Except I have just about zero.
Current disks are ~4 years, runs 24/7, and excluding a bad cable incident I've had a single case of a read error (recoverable, thanks ZFS).
I suspect those URE numbers are made by the manufacturers figuring out they can be sure the disk will do 10^14, but they don't actually try to find the real number because 10^14 is good enough.