Everything? As a lawyer, I’m producing 2x - with fewer errors. Admittedly, law is a field that mostly involves shuffling words around so it may be the best case scenario, but much of the skepticism comes off as cope.
ChatGPT links to the actual text in a case now. Also, take the output from Claude, and put it into Gemini and tell it to verify holdings. Furthermore, spot checking 10 cases doesn’t take long.
computer programming and law are very similar. computer code is called code because it is the law that dictates the behavior of the computer. law is a bit different because it is a program that runs on people, who aren't as deterministic as machines, but in theory law and the interpretation of law are also supposed to be completely logical, and you can translate back and forth directly from the logic of law to a logical expression in a computer program.
i specialize in programming, and LLMs are very good right now, if you set them up with the right tooling, feedback based learning methods, and efficient ways of capturing human input (review/approve/suggest/correct/etc).
with programming you have compilers and other static analysis tools that you can use to verify output. for law you need similar static analysis tooling, to verify things like citations, procedural scheduling, electronic filing, etc, but if you loop that tooling in with an llm, the llm will be able to correct errors automatically, and you will get to an agent that can take a statement of fact, find a cause of action, and file a pro se lawsuit for someone.
courts are going to be flooded with lawsuits, on a scale of 10-100X current case loads.
criminal defendants will be able to use a smart phone app to represent themselves, with an AI handling all of the filings and motions, monitoring the trial in real time, giving advice to the defendant on when to make motions and what to say, maximizing delay and cost for the state with maximum efficiency.
with 98% of convictions coming from guilty pleas (https://www.npr.org/2023/02/22/1158356619/plea-bargains-crim...) which are largely driven by not being able to afford the cost of legal services the number of criminal defendants electing to go to full jury trial could easily explode 10-20X or more very quickly.
