Measuring Ideological Proportions in Political Speeches

Cue-lag representation

The table below shows the cue-lag representation of the speech. For each cue term, it also displays the posterior distributions over ideology.

#	Cue term	Lag before term	Posterior distribution
#	Cue term	Lag before term	Restart		∑Left	Center	∑Right
1	feel_free	120		✓	1	0	0.000199
1	feel_free	120		✗	0	0	0
2	phone_call	85		✓	0.35	0	0
2	phone_call	85		✗	0.65	0	0
3	local_offici	5		✓	0.0261	0.000199	0.00736
3	local_offici	5		✗	0.966	0	0
4	fellow_american	99		✓	0.388	0.000597	0.124
4	fellow_american	99		✗	0.485	0	0.00259
5	__NUM___year	82		✓	0.0432	0	0.777
5	__NUM___year	82		✗	0.0878	0	0.0921
6	econom_crisi	14		✓	0.00159	0	0.158
6	econom_crisi	14		✗	0.0173	0	0.823
7	great_depress	3		✓	0.000597	0	0.0135
7	great_depress	3		✗	0.0141	0	0.972
8	american_peopl	9		✓	0.0107	0	0.034
8	american_peopl	9		✗	0.0117	0	0.943
9	__NUM___million	7		✓	0.000398	0	0.0378
9	__NUM___million	7		✗	0.00856	0	0.953
10	auto_industri	5		✓	0	0	0.0304
10	auto_industri	5		✗	0	0	0.97
11	american_manufactur	5		✓	0	0	0.0185
11	american_manufactur	5		✗	0	0	0.981
12	__NUM___year	8		✓	0.00219	0	0.0289
12	__NUM___year	8		✗	0	0	0.969
13	foreign_oil	5		✓	0.00119	0	0.0211
13	foreign_oil	5		✗	0.00139	0	0.976
14	__NUM___year	6		✓	0.108	0	0.0217
14	__NUM___year	6		✗	0.00299	0	0.867
15	bin_laden	50		✓	0.842	0	0.0167
15	bin_laden	50		✗	0.0868	0	0.0543
16	past___NUM___year	9		✓	0.103	0	0.000199
16	past___NUM___year	9		✗	0.888	0	0.00876
17	work_harder	42		✓	0.191	0	0.00259
17	work_harder	42		✗	0.806	0	0.000199
18	middl_class	61		✓	0.251	0.000199	0.0444
18	middl_class	61		✗	0.704	0	0.00119
19	work_hard	15		✓	0.0933	0	0.00318
19	work_hard	15		✗	0.889	0	0.0143
20	fair_share	29		✓	0.133	0	0.0183
20	fair_share	29		✗	0.839	0	0.00955
21	unit_state	36		✓	0.148	0	0.119
21	unit_state	36		✗	0.713	0	0.0193
22	middl_class	49		✓	0.084	0	0.53
22	middl_class	49		✗	0.273	0	0.114
23	financi_crisi	7		✓	0.0159	0	0.0597
23	financi_crisi	7		✗	0.304	0	0.62
24	__NUM___year	9		✓	0.0842	0	0.0233
24	__NUM___year	9		✗	0.305	0	0.587
25	good_job	15		✓	0.185	0.000199	0.0221
25	good_job	15		✗	0.361	0	0.431
26	global_trade	2		✓	0.0127	0	0.00498
26	global_trade	2		✗	0.54	0.000199	0.442
27	american_worker	20		✓	0.0533	0.000199	0.0416
27	american_worker	20		✗	0.496	0.000199	0.409
28	corpor_profit	9		✓	0.0955	0.000199	0.0103
28	corpor_profit	9		✗	0.527	0.000199	0.367
29	health_care	16		✓	0.174	0	0.0159
29	health_care	16		✗	0.574	0	0.236
30	global_competit	24		✓	0.2	0	0.00995
30	global_competit	24		✗	0.663	0	0.127
31	unit_state	83		✓	0.419	0	0.0163
31	unit_state	83		✗	0.554	0	0.0105
32	full_potenti	5		✓	0.0297	0.000398	0.00239
32	full_potenti	5		✗	0.946	0	0.0217
33	__NUM___dai	25		✓	0.242	0	0.00796
33	__NUM___dai	25		✗	0.744	0	0.00537
34	middl_class	79		✓	0.291	0.000995	0.13
34	middl_class	79		✗	0.572	0	0.00577
35	good_job	31		✓	0.185	0.000796	0.0195
35	good_job	31		✗	0.729	0.000199	0.0659
36	free_market	9		✓	0.0444	0.000199	0.0127
36	free_market	9		✗	0.866	0.000398	0.076
37	skill_worker	61		✓	0.313	0	0.00537
37	skill_worker	61		✗	0.677	0	0.00438
38	market_work	79		✓	0.00259	0	0.985
38	market_work	79		✗	0.00557	0	0.00637
39	protect_consum	25		✓	0	0	0.0925
39	protect_consum	25		✗	0	0	0.907
40	credit_card_compani	3		✓	0	0	0.0115
40	credit_card_compani	3		✗	0	0	0.988
41	tax_code	28		✓	0	0	0.0979
41	tax_code	28		✗	0	0	0.902
42	hard_work	2		✓	0.0101	0	0.0115
42	hard_work	2		✗	0	0	0.978
43	creat_job	4		✓	0.000398	0	0.0203
43	creat_job	4		✗	0.00597	0	0.973
44	health_care	9		✓	0.0119	0	0.0376
44	health_care	9		✗	0.00517	0	0.945
45	__NUM___year	29		✓	0.00716	0	0.108
45	__NUM___year	29		✗	0.00398	0	0.881
46	bill_clinton	16		✓	0.000199	0	0.0621
46	bill_clinton	16		✗	0.000199	0	0.938
47	interest_thing	3		✓	0.00597	0	0.0107
47	interest_thing	3		✗	0.000398	0	0.983
48	job_creation	73		✓	0.00259	0.00199	0.242
48	job_creation	73		✗	0.000398	0	0.753
49	sound_familiar	5		✓	0	0	0.0231
49	sound_familiar	5		✗	0.000199	0	0.977
50	bill_clinton	42		✓	0	0	0.139
50	bill_clinton	42		✗	0	0	0.861
51	creat___NUM__	6		✓	0.000199	0	0.0211
51	creat___NUM__	6		✗	0	0	0.979
52	__NUM___million	0		✓	0.000398	0	0.00458
52	__NUM___million	0		✗	0	0	0.995
53	__NUM___year	50		✓	0.00139	0	0.166
53	__NUM___year	50		✗	0	0	0.833
54	bill_clinton	2		✓	0	0	0.0115
54	bill_clinton	2		✗	0	0	0.988
55	left_offic	1		✓	0	0	0.00537
55	left_offic	1		✗	0	0	0.995
56	tax_cut	10		✓	0	0	0.0372
56	tax_cut	10		✗	0	0	0.963
57	tax_break	6		✓	0	0	0.0223
57	tax_break	6		✗	0	0	0.978
58	job_oversea	3		✓	0	0	0.0143
58	job_oversea	3		✗	0	0	0.986
59	insur_compani	1		✓	0	0	0.00398
59	insur_compani	1		✗	0	0	0.996
60	oil_compani	2		✓	0	0	0.0105
60	oil_compani	2		✗	0	0	0.989
61	wall_street	2		✓	0	0	0.0123
61	wall_street	2		✗	0	0	0.988
62	job_growth	46		✓	0	0	0.157
62	job_growth	46		✗	0	0	0.843
63	econom_crisi	7		✓	0.000597	0	0.0275
63	econom_crisi	7		✗	0	0	0.972
64	__NUM___year	10		✓	0.0153	0	0.0354
64	__NUM___year	10		✗	0.000398	0	0.949
65	middl_class	127		✓	0.0374	0.00119	0.402
65	middl_class	127		✗	0.000995	0	0.558
66	biggest_bank	40		✓	0	0	0.173
66	biggest_bank	40		✗	0	0	0.827
67	health_insur	8		✓	0.000398	0	0.03
67	health_insur	8		✗	0	0	0.97
68	__MONEY___trillion	18		✓	0	0	0.0655
68	__MONEY___trillion	18		✗	0	0	0.935
69	tax_cut	1		✓	0	0	0.00677
69	tax_cut	1		✗	0	0	0.993
70	answer_question	23		✓	0.000796	0	0.0762
70	answer_question	23		✗	0	0	0.923
71	tea_parti	30		✓	0.00219	0	0.1
71	tea_parti	30		✗	0	0	0.898
72	__NUM___year	70		✓	0.349	0.000398	0.153
72	__NUM___year	70		✗	0.00199	0	0.495
73	auto_bailout	43		✓	0.323	0.0103	0.0724
73	auto_bailout	43		✗	0.271	0.000398	0.323
74	singl_dai	64		✓	0.534	0	0.0137
74	singl_dai	64		✗	0.422	0	0.0297
75	good_job	89		✓	0.382	0.000199	0.0159
75	good_job	89		✗	0.597	0	0.00498
76	young_peopl	38		✓	0.188	0	0.00239
76	young_peopl	38		✗	0.809	0	0.000796
77	borrow_monei	13		✓	0.0617	0	0.00478
77	borrow_monei	13		✗	0.931	0	0.00299
78	tax_credit	29		✓	0.124	0.000398	0.0253
78	tax_credit	29		✗	0.845	0	0.00557
79	tax_cut	6		✓	0.0265	0.00358	0.142
79	tax_cut	6		✗	0.798	0.000199	0.03
80	scienc_teacher	23		✓	0.26	0	0
80	scienc_teacher	23		✗	0.74	0	0
81	wage_job	9		✓	0.0414	0	0
81	wage_job	9		✗	0.959	0	0
82	commun_colleg	18		✓	0.0852	0	0
82	commun_colleg	18		✗	0.915	0	0
83	__NUM___million_american	4		✓	0.0217	0.000995	0.000199
83	__NUM___million_american	4		✗	0.977	0	0
84	make_america	54		✓	0.151	0	0.361
84	make_america	54		✗	0.488	0	0
85	auto_industri	29		✓	0.00259	0	0.624
85	auto_industri	29		✗	0.0195	0	0.354
86	wind_turbin	51		✓	0.00856	0	0.11
86	wind_turbin	51		✗	0.00358	0	0.877
87	__NUM___year_ago	10		✓	0.0718	0	0.0426
87	__NUM___year_ago	10		✗	0.0115	0	0.874
88	clean_energi	37		✓	0.00776	0	0.124
88	clean_energi	37		✗	0.0179	0	0.85
89	tax_code	18		✓	0.000199	0	0.284
89	tax_code	18		✗	0	0	0.716
90	job_oversea	7		✓	0	0	0.0537
90	job_oversea	7		✗	0	0	0.946
91	tax_code	18		✓	0	0	0.0388
91	tax_code	18		✗	0	0	0.961
92	oil_compani	3		✓	0	0	0.00697
92	oil_compani	3		✗	0	0	0.993
93	compani_profit	0		✓	0	0	0.000199
93	compani_profit	0		✗	0	0	1
94	make_monei	3		✓	0	0	0.000199
94	make_monei	3		✗	0	0	1
95	foreign_oil	42		✓	0.000199	0	0.00398
95	foreign_oil	42		✗	0	0	0.996
96	nation_secur	122		✓	0.297	0	0.0163
96	nation_secur	122		✗	0	0	0.686
97	put_peopl	5		✓	0.0585	0	0.038
97	put_peopl	5		✗	0.285	0	0.619
98	trillion_dollar	117		✓	0	0	0.967
98	trillion_dollar	117		✗	0	0	0.0328
99	spend_cut	4		✓	0	0	0.0173
99	spend_cut	4		✗	0	0	0.983
100	tax_rate	41		✓	0	0.000597	0.131
100	tax_rate	41		✗	0	0	0.869
101	bill_clinton	4		✓	0	0	0.0139
101	bill_clinton	4		✗	0	0.000199	0.986
102	tax_cut	41		✓	0.00776	0.000398	0.135
102	tax_cut	41		✗	0	0	0.857
103	health_care_reform	15		✓	0.0888	0	0.0432
103	health_care_reform	15		✗	0.00716	0	0.861
104	young_peopl	26		✓	0.33	0	0.0509
104	young_peopl	26		✗	0.0931	0	0.526
105	__NUM___year	9		✓	0.0213	0	0.0422
105	__NUM___year	9		✗	0.386	0	0.55
106	insur_compani	5		✓	0.00995	0	0.0227
106	insur_compani	5		✗	0.39	0	0.577
107	jump_back	2		✓	0.00179	0	0.00736
107	jump_back	2		✗	0.4	0	0.591
108	health_care	20		✓	0.322	0.000398	0.0233
108	health_care	20		✗	0.363	0	0.291
109	big_govern	41		✓	0.628	0	0
109	big_govern	41		✗	0.371	0	0.000398
110	small_govern	4		✓	0.0265	0	0
110	small_govern	4		✗	0.974	0	0
111	middl_class	6		✓	0.114	0	0.0123
111	middl_class	6		✗	0.873	0	0
112	hard_work	7		✓	0.0484	0	0.00119
112	hard_work	7		✗	0.944	0	0.00597
113	futur_gener	74		✓	0.308	0	0.00139
113	futur_gener	74		✗	0.69	0	0
114	__NUM___year	51		✓	0.209	0	0.049
114	__NUM___year	51		✗	0.742	0	0.000199
115	american_peopl	53		✓	0.257	0	0.00318
115	american_peopl	53		✗	0.738	0	0.00199
116	special_interest	20		✓	0.0939	0	0
116	special_interest	20		✗	0.906	0	0
117	statu_quo	33		✓	0.141	0	0.000199
117	statu_quo	33		✗	0.859	0	0
118	power_forc	3		✓	0.0201	0	0
118	power_forc	3		✗	0.98	0	0
119	__NUM___year	7		✓	0.037	0	0.00338
119	__NUM___year	7		✗	0.96	0	0
120	fought_back	11		✓	0.0517	0	0.00318
120	fought_back	11		✗	0.943	0	0.00159
121	health_care	13		✓	0.0631	0	0.00557
121	health_care	13		✗	0.928	0	0.00358
122	wall_street	2		✓	0.0147	0	0.00318
122	wall_street	2		✗	0.974	0	0.00836
123	student_loan	2		✓	0.0135	0	0
123	student_loan	2		✗	0.977	0	0.00915
124	american_peopl	36		✓	0.154	0	0.00856
124	american_peopl	36		✗	0.835	0	0.00239
125	put_peopl	44		✓	0.199	0	0.0123
125	put_peopl	44		✗	0.785	0	0.00338
126	good_sens	57		✓	0.257	0	0.000199
126	good_sens	57		✗	0.742	0	0
127	american_peopl	3		✓	0.0165	0	0
127	american_peopl	3		✗	0.983	0	0.000199
128	lost_sight	21		✓	0.0947	0	0.000199
128	lost_sight	21		✗	0.905	0	0
129	singl_dai	25		✓	0.108	0	0.0179
129	singl_dai	25		✗	0.874	0	0
130	middl_class	2		✓	0.0137	0	0.0113
130	middl_class	2		✗	0.957	0	0.0177
131	class_american	0		✓	0.00637	0.000995	0.000398
131	class_american	0		✗	0.963	0	0.0291
132	work_hard	6		✓	0.0271	0	0.0468
132	work_hard	6		✗	0.897	0.000796	0.0285
133	cut_tax	16		✓	0	0.0993	0.83
133	cut_tax	16		✗	0.00179	0.000796	0.0679
134	small_busi	2		✓	0.00338	0.00159	0.00995
134	small_busi	2		✗	0.00179	0.0997	0.884
135	student_loan	55		✓	0.581	0	0.0864
135	student_loan	55		✗	0.00438	0.000199	0.328
136	young_peopl	13		✓	0.0482	0	0.0603
136	young_peopl	13		✗	0.51	0	0.381
137	wall_street	6		✓	0.0107	0	0.256
137	wall_street	6		✗	0.3	0	0.433
138	insur_compani	15		✓	0.0173	0	0.14
138	insur_compani	15		✗	0.195	0	0.648
139	parti_line	112		✓	0.555	0.0155	0.152
139	parti_line	112		✗	0.0611	0	0.217
140	core_principl	13		✓	0.04	0.00498	0.0718
140	core_principl	13		✗	0.521	0.0151	0.347
141	financi_aid	20		✓	0.00418	0	0.602
141	financi_aid	20		✗	0.0699	0	0.324
142	plan_parenthood	7		✓	0.00159	0	0.0356
142	plan_parenthood	7		✗	0.0617	0	0.901
143	health_care	3		✓	0.000995	0	0.0147
143	health_care	3		✗	0.0593	0	0.925
144	tax_cut	10		✓	0.000398	0	0.0953
144	tax_cut	10		✗	0.000597	0	0.904
145	statu_quo	20		✓	0.0348	0	0.0677
145	statu_quo	20		✗	0.000398	0	0.897
146	middl_class	4		✓	0.00239	0	0.0199
146	middl_class	4		✗	0.0285	0	0.949
147	class_famili	0		✓	0.000796	0	0.00358
147	class_famili	0		✗	0.0297	0	0.966
148	phone_call	96		✓	0.98	0	0
148	phone_call	96		✗	0.0197	0	0
149	campaign_trail	27		✓	0.12	0	0
149	campaign_trail	27		✗	0.88	0	0
150	singl_dai	2		✓	0.0149	0	0
150	singl_dai	2		✗	0.985	0	0
151	restaur_owner	27		✓	0.117	0	0
151	restaur_owner	27		✗	0.883	0	0
152	small_farm	110		✓	0.438	0	0
152	small_farm	110		✗	0.562	0	0
153	vest_interest	61		✓	0.26	0.000199	0.000199
153	vest_interest	61		✗	0.74	0	0
154	turn_back	61		✓	0.251	0	0
154	turn_back	61		✗	0.749	0	0
155	push_forward	15		✓	0.0685	0	0.000199
155	push_forward	15		✗	0.931	0	0
156	middl_class	31		✓	0.0903	0.000398	0.326
156	middl_class	31		✗	0.583	0	0.000199
157	great_depress	42		✓	0.102	0	0.259
157	great_depress	42		✗	0.372	0	0.267
158	young_peopl	67		✓	0.636	0	0.00438
158	young_peopl	67		✗	0.343	0	0.0173
159	phone_call	23		✓	0.131	0	0
159	phone_call	23		✗	0.869	0	0
160	move_forward	30		✓	0.137	0	0.00418
160	move_forward	30		✗	0.859	0	0
161	unit_state	12		✓	0.0591	0	0.000796
161	unit_state	12		✗	0.94	0	0.000597
162	god_bless	8		✓	0.0388	0	0
162	god_bless	8		✗	0.961	0	0
163	unit_state	5		✓	0.0215	0	0.00478
163	unit_state	5		✗	0.974	0	0
	__END_OF_SPEECH__	6

Barack Obama

Cue-lag representation